Without a doubt, how many millions of boxes of cherries will Chile export during the 2023-2024 season is a question that the entire cherry industry is asking itself. The first estimates, at the end of the previous campaign, came from Asoex (now Frutas de Chile), an entity that predicted 100 million boxes. However, at that time there were not even predictions of what was to come.
A winter with low accumulation of cold hours, with three episodes of intense rainfall, floods, delays in fertilization programs and the start of the irrigation season, undoubtedly changed the outlook. This is how Asoex made a new announcement last September: «The estimate of cherry exports for this new season is 90 to 100 million boxes, last year we shipped around 83 million boxes, so it would be a record year. Although we are still evaluating to provide a more complete estimate, especially after the rains, we will still have a significant volume. We will improve the quality, and ultimately the consumer in China, our main market, will have an even better product than the one they already had," observed Ivan Marambio, president of Asoex.
Spring rains made the situation even worse, causing cracks in the fruit. Despite this, the Cherry Committee of Asoex, which represents more than 85% of the volume of Chilean cherry exports to the world, announced a New estimate for the 2023-2024 season, amounting to 95,412,863 million boxes (5 kilos each).
“Although the new estimate shows an increase of 15% compared to last season's shipments, it must be kept in mind that, given the climatic reality that we are facing, this is a volume that varies constantly, so the data will be reduced as the season progresses. What is more certain is that we will continue to send cherries of very good quality, size and flavor to the world to ensure that consumers can enjoy this Chilean fruit, especially in China, our main destination,” Marambio pointed out.
What do the advisors say?
The announced figure was not shared by specialist advisors on cherry production or by producers of this fruit species.
During the recent launch of Smartcherry TV, advisors Carlos Tapia and Ricardo Miño agreed that the number of exported boxes would be lower than estimated by the trade association.
«I always thought that by 2023, doing the simple math of the history of the last few seasons, with the ups and downs in production, with the productive and planted hectares, I always thought that Chile could be at 93-95 million boxes, today I think we should be close to 83-85 million boxes», said Carlos Tapia, Founder and Technical Director of Avium.
For his part, Ricardo Miño, a specialist advisor on cherry production, commented: "I'm close to the 80% that we originally thought, if we originally thought there were 100 million, I think we're going to be close to 80 million cases."
For advisor Walter Masman, the drop in relation to the Asoex estimate is 35 percent: «I agree with what my fellow advisors say; I think that today there are 80 million cases or maybe a little less, I think that we will be between 78-80 million cases, that is my feeling. I think that from the varietal point of view, if we go by variety, I think that the Santina in total volume loss is more than 50 percent today and in Royal Dawn it is also significant.»
Producers respond
For cherry growers, the estimate of 95 million boxes is far above what they believe will be exported this season.
"I have the impression that it will be at least 30 percent less, I think it will be around 60-65 million boxes. "said Raúl Salas, a cherry producer from Rauco, in the Maule region.
It is worth mentioning that during the last campaign, Chile sent 83 million boxes of cherries to international markets, mainly to China.
«I think it is difficult for there to be 95 million. I think that we will actually be at a figure similar to last year, about 83, maybe a little more or around there, because the fall is very important in Santina, especially since it is the second most productive variety or the one with the highest kilos in Chile; and there are parts of early areas where Lapins, which is the main variety, has also had important abortions. So we went from orchards that traditionally produced 18 tons (per ha) and that today are with 5 tons», warned producer and advisor Andrés Cabalín.
This season has generated more doubts than certainties, however, as the days go by, the estimate of boxes of cherries that will be exported this campaign will become clearer.
