The El Niño event, which accompanied us during the past year, ended at the end of May, beginning of June, giving way to a neutral phase; that is, the Pacific Ocean is not affected by either event. According to probabilistic models, the La Niña event is expected to make its entrance in July-August, or at the latest in September.
«What is already confirmed is that spring, with a 90 percent probability, will be under a regime of the «La Niña» event, that is to say from the end of August until the end of the year the «La Niña» event will be present in spring.", said Patricio González, an agroclimatologist from the University of Talca.
But what will happen during these months of neutrality?
«Obviously, they leave uncertainty about how the rains will behave. We have had frosts, which are already indicating a cold transition event, and spring with a «La Niña» event is normally associated with low rainfall and low maximum temperatures, which is good because the snow does not melt so quickly and is left for the summer. We have a lot of snow, the reservoirs have a fairly good capacity, so we have to wait these two or three months with this uncertainty, but spring will be governed by the «La Niña» event.", the specialist commented.
As for atmospheric rivers, two of which have already occurred this year, the probability of further events of this type would decrease.
«In a neutral process, such as the current one, there is a low possibility of atmospheric rivers or torrential rains like those that occurred in June. In fact, in July there should not be any more rain during the first two weeks of the month. Rather, they will be cold, foggy and with a low probability of extreme rain. Atmospheric rivers are always associated with «El Niño» events. When there are «El Niño» events and the sea is warmer, there is a greater probability of atmospheric rivers. When the event ends, there is obviously precipitation, but it should not be as intense or disastrous as those that occurred in June and August 2023 and those that occurred now in June 2024.», added Patricio Gonzalez.
Finally, the accumulation of chilling hours should continue normally, allowing the different varieties of cherries to meet their chilling requirements without major problems.
«When it rains a lot and the month is very rainy, the accumulation of cold hours is low, when there are clear days, when there are polar air masses as is happening now in the month of July, the accumulation of cold hours increases substantially; therefore, although it is true that precipitation is beneficial, there must also be days when the cold hours that are below 7ºC are associated with clear days, with polar air waves, which are the ones that accumulate cold. I estimate that this year we will accumulate a normal amount of cold hours for cherries, we should not have, as last year, a risk of being at the limit, concluded agroclimatologist Patricio González.
