This Agroclimatological report has two objectives:
1.- Analyze the climatic behavior of Curicó in June 2023.
2.- Project agroclimatic scenarios for July 2023.
Atmospheric river
From June 21 to 26, the Maule region was affected by a frontal system linked to an atmospheric river. The latter is a long band of clouds containing water vapor and humidity that is extracted from the equator and injected into the frontal system, making it more active and causing intense rains in short periods of time. Associated with the above, due to its tropical origin, the atmospheric river also has warm characteristics; this caused the 0° C isotherm to be located in the Andes mountain range at 3,000 meters above sea level. From that level down, the rain was liquid, which generated the flooding of rivers such as the Mataquito and Maule (among others) with the disastrous flooding of towns and hectares of crops, including cherries, in areas such as Licantén. This extreme event is a product of climate change; its intensity and recurrence during this winter is something that must be monitored. Excessive rainfall, in the short term, causes more damage than benefits to agriculture.
The graph shows that the greatest impacts of rainfall were on the coast (Constitución, Chanco and Pelluhue), in the dry interior (Curepto, Hualañé, Empedrado and Cauquenes) and in the province of Linares. In the mountain range, 601.5 millimeters were measured. This explains the abrupt rise of the rivers, whose headwaters are born in the mountain range, as well as the differences in rainfall amounts with the central valley.
Agroclimatic projections July 2023
Probabilistic models, both statistical and dynamic, estimate that in July the rain cycle would have the following characteristics:
1.- Rain for one or two days, followed by cloudy to clear skies, with damp and cold weather. Frost is not ruled out in rural areas.
2.- After the rainfall on Friday night, July 7, and Saturday, July 8, the weather in Maule and, specifically in Curicó, will probably remain only partially cloudy and cold (frost on some days) until Monday, July 17. This period will favor the accumulation of Cold Hours, which to date total 391 HF (base 7°), in the period between May 1 and July 3.
3.- Rainfall deficits in Curicó reach 40% and Talca 48%. As for snow, as of July 3, the deficits are -83% in the Metropolitan region; -89% in the Maule region and -86% in the Ñuble region.
Summary
It is advisable to take care of the water resource. Climate change conditions and probabilistic models estimate that rainfall deficits could continue during July. Let us remember that Curicó ended with a deficit of 100% in the months of January, February and March. April had a surplus of 8%; May had a deficit of 66.1% and June had a deficit of 36.7%. Finally, as of July 3, 0.2 millimeters had accumulated.
