By: Patricio González Colville. M.Sc. (University of Chile) – Dip. Agroclimatology, University of Israel.
This Agroclimatological Report has two objectives:
1.- Analyze the current and future development of the El Niño 2023-2024 event.
2.- Thermo-pluviometric risks in Curicó, November 2023.
Projection and development of the El Niño event 2023-2024
The latest statistical and dynamical model forecasts indicate that El Niño will continue into the Southern Hemisphere fall of 2024. Based on the latest forecasts, there is a 50% chance of a “strong” El Niño (≥ 1.5°C seasonally average Niño-3.4 in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean) developing into January–March 2024. There is a 35% chance that this event will become “historically very strong” (≥ 2.5°C) by the November–January season. Stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies such as spring-like showers and rains, extreme maximum temperatures (32° C), or some chance of hail in some areas. In summary, El Niño is projected to continue into the Southern Hemisphere summer with a 99% chance (Figure 7).
Rainfall for Friday 10th and Saturday 11th November 2023
Rainfall is expected between Friday and Saturday, including showers in the province of Curicó (and Maule). These rains will be concentrated in the Andes and foothills; 10 to 18 millimeters are estimated for both days. However, the probability indicates a greater occurrence on Saturday. There is no risk of causing avalanches or violent flooding of riverbeds.
Effects on fruit growing
During both days, some physiological effects may occur in the cherries, such as cracking. For this reason, it is advisable to protect them from rainwater, even if it is a shower. It is estimated that orchards located further towards the foothills would be at greater risk; in these locations on Saturday 11th, there could be not only a greater amount of rain, but also the probability of occasional hail.
The forecast for the week of November 12-17 estimates partly to clear skies. Minimum temperatures between 3 to 6° C and maximum temperatures around 23 to 24° C. Towards Saturday 18 and 19, maximum temperatures of 25 to 26° C are even expected. In other words, hot days. During that week, the probability of rain is less than 40%.
The greatest risks generated during the presence of the El Niño event in spring are short rains of between 10 and 12 millimeters and the probability of hail in specific locations. This is more common in the foothills. This risk could continue through November.
