Cold conditions and almost no rain characterized the month of July.
The month of July was exceptional: there was practically no rain. Only 2.4 millimetres were measured, due to condensation from the constant morning fog. This lack of precipitation was compensated by frosts that covered almost half of the month. During the first fortnight, 11 days of frost were recorded: from the 5th to the 15th of the month; the most intense was -4.4° C below zero on the 8th. In addition, the average duration ranged from 7 to 11 hours below zero.
In total, July had 14 days of frost. It should be added that this month was diametrically opposed to June. In the latter period, 293.6 mm of rain fell and there was only one day with frost: -1.1° C on the 25th.
Regarding the Chilling Hours (CH), 339.0 were accumulated in May, 206.0 in June and 530.0 in July. The total, as of July 31, is 1075.0 CH.
As for rainfall, Curicó has accumulated 497.6 millimeters as of August 4. The normal amount should be 417.9 mm, which is why there is a surplus of 19.1%. Compared to the year 2023, at the same date, only 253.6 millimeters have been accumulated.
Projections for August 2024 in the context of the La Niña cold event.
Chart 1. Probabilistic model for the development of a “La Niña” cold event in the August-October 2024 quarter.
It is important to analyze what is happening with the weather in August. Until Saturday 3rd, there had been 81.2 millimeters of precipitation in Curicó. In addition, there were winds of 52 kilometers per hour in the early hours of Saturday 2nd. Although this helps, along with the snowfall, to ensure the irrigation season, it can cause damage to the fruit trees both due to the accumulation of water on the farms and due to the force of the wind.
We must say that, according to graph 1, the warm El Niño event has ended. Currently, the central equatorial climate and oceanographic system is in a neutral situation, waiting for the cold La Niña event to begin, which should happen in the August-October quarter with a probability of 80%. Therefore, August will continue with moderate rains: on the 5th and 6th, they should add up to about 25 millimeters. The projection estimates that between Wednesday the 7th and Tuesday the 13th, or Wednesday the 14th, the environment will be cold, humid and with the probability of frost, on some days, between 0° C and -2° C.
Finally, spring conditions, in terms of rainfall deficit and late frosts in particular, will depend on the La Niña event starting to manifest between August and September. We will continue to monitor and report in our next September newsletter.
