{"id":52403,"date":"2026-01-06T09:35:45","date_gmt":"2026-01-06T12:35:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/smartcherry.cl\/?p=52403"},"modified":"2026-01-06T09:35:46","modified_gmt":"2026-01-06T12:35:46","slug":"reporte-agroclimatologico-de-enero-la-nina-retrocede-pero-calor-extremo-y-sequia-seguiran-marcando-el-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/smartcherry.cl\/en\/clima\/reporte-agroclimatologico-de-enero-la-nina-retrocede-pero-calor-extremo-y-sequia-seguiran-marcando-el-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Reporte agroclimatol\u00f3gico de enero: La Ni\u00f1a retrocede, pero calor extremo y sequ\u00eda seguir\u00e1n marcando el 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

En el informe encontrar\u00e1n las proyecciones realizadas por el agroclimatol\u00f3logo Patricio Gonz\u00e1lez, quien se\u00f1ala que La Ni\u00f1a contin\u00faa en fase d\u00e9bil y comenzar\u00eda a desaparecer durante el verano, dando paso a un escenario clim\u00e1tico neutral en 2026. Sin embargo, el calor extremo, el d\u00e9ficit de lluvias y el estr\u00e9s h\u00eddrico mantienen en alerta a la zona central.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

El presente documento tiene dos objetivos:<\/em><\/strong>
1.- Proyecciones, para enero de 2026, respecto a la evoluci\u00f3n del evento fr\u00edo La Ni\u00f1a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2.- Ambientes agroclimatol\u00f3gicos que podr\u00edan caracterizar a enero 2026, a la provincia de Curic\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Proyecciones del evento fr\u00edo La Ni\u00f1a enero 2026<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

El evento fr\u00edo La Ni\u00f1a contin\u00faa desarroll\u00e1ndose, en categor\u00eda  d\u00e9bil. La temperatura superficial del mar (TSM) del Oc\u00e9ano Pac\u00edfico ecuatorial central se ha mantenido en diciembre en torno a un valor entre -0.5\u00b0 C a -0.7\u00b0 C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El gr\u00e1fico, publicado por la Agencia Nacional para los Oc\u00e9anos y Atm\u00f3sfera (NOAA), proyecta que este evento fr\u00edo se va ir debilitando durante el verano lo cual, progresivamente, dar\u00eda paso a una situaci\u00f3n neutral sin la presencia de ninguno de los dos eventos (El Ni\u00f1o o La Ni\u00f1a). Incluso, en el promedio m\u00f3vil enero, febrero y marzo, la probabilidad que La Ni\u00f1a est\u00e9 presente es s\u00f3lo de un 31%. Sin embargo la neutralidad sube a casi un 70%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Estas tendencias indican que, probablemente durante el oto\u00f1o-invierno 2026, no estaremos bajo la influencia de ninguno de los dos eventos. Lo anterior proyecta un escenario nivo-pluviom\u00e9trico que estar\u00eda bajo condiciones de un clima \u201cnormal\u201d, s\u00f3lo influenciado por el cambio clim\u00e1tico el cual ha sido responsable, en gran parte, de la mega sequ\u00eda que est\u00e1 afectando a la zona central desde el 2007. En 2025 Curic\u00f3 sum\u00f3 s\u00f3lo 472.6 mil\u00edmetros de lluvia; lo normal son 596.0 mil\u00edmetros, por lo que termin\u00f3 con un d\u00e9ficit de 123.4 mil\u00edmetros, que equivalen al 20.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Una de las caracter\u00edsticas de diciembre ha sido el calor. Curic\u00f3 registr\u00f3 una ola de calor durante diciembre, con una temperatura m\u00e1xima extrema de 36.3\u00b0 C. La acumulaci\u00f3n de Grados-d\u00eda (base 10\u00b0 C) fue de 362.3 Grados-d\u00eda mensual. La suma de la temporada (septiembre-diciembre) es de 871.4 GDA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Proyecciones enero 2026<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figura 2. Proyecci\u00f3n probabil\u00edstica de temperaturas m\u00e1ximas extremas. Regi\u00f3n del Maule, enero 2026<\/em><\/strong>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

La figura 2 muestra que temperaturas m\u00e1ximas extremas podr\u00edan registrarse en algunas ciudades de la Regi\u00f3n del Maule, durante enero de 2026. Estas m\u00e1ximas extremas se registrar\u00edan, a lo menos, durante dos a tres d\u00edas durante el mes, asociadas a olas de calor (temperaturas m\u00e1ximas extremas iguales o superiores a 33\u00b0 C por tres o m\u00e1s d\u00edas seguidos).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Este calor generar\u00eda un efecto de escala: altas temperaturas diarias + humedades relativas bajas (15 al 20%) + altas tasas de evapotranspiraci\u00f3n (80 a 90 m3\/hect\u00e1reas\/d\u00eda) + cielos despejados + radiaci\u00f3n fotosint\u00e9tica alta = estr\u00e9s t\u00e9rmico e h\u00eddrico en frutales y alto riesgo de incendios forestales intensos y extensos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Por lo anterior se recomienda hacer uso muy racional del agua de riego; cuidar y mantener adecuadamente la infraestructura\u00a0 para evitar p\u00e9rdidas en su transmisi\u00f3n del r\u00edo al predio.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Patricio Gonz\u00e1lez M.Sc. (Universidad de Chile) Dip. Agroclimatolog\u00eda Universidad de Israel.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":273,"featured_media":52404,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[430,35],"tags":[1487,1881,3927],"category_proveedor":[],"pais":[],"class_list":["post-52403","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-clima","category-noticias","tag-patricio-gonzalez","tag-reporte-agroclimatico","tag-enero"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nReporte agroclimatol\u00f3gico de enero: La Ni\u00f1a retrocede, pero calor extremo y sequ\u00eda seguir\u00e1n marcando el 2026 - Smartcherry<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"En el informe encontrar\u00e1n las proyecciones realizadas por el agroclimatol\u00f3logo Patricio Gonz\u00e1lez, quien se\u00f1ala que La Ni\u00f1a contin\u00faa en fase d\u00e9bil y comenzar\u00eda a desaparecer durante el verano, dando paso a un escenario clim\u00e1tico neutral en 2026. 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