{"id":39854,"date":"2024-10-08T13:50:54","date_gmt":"2024-10-08T17:50:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/smartcherry.cl\/?p=39854"},"modified":"2024-10-08T13:59:56","modified_gmt":"2024-10-08T17:59:56","slug":"informe-agroclimatologico-para-el-mes-de-octubre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/smartcherry.cl\/en\/clima\/informe-agroclimatologico-para-el-mes-de-octubre\/","title":{"rendered":"Informe agroclimatol\u00f3gico para el mes de octubre"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0This Agroclimatological Report has two objectives:\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1.- An\u00e1lisis de las condiciones agroclimatol\u00f3gicas durante septiembre. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

2.- Proyecciones para el mes de octubre. Evoluci\u00f3n del evento La Ni\u00f1a 2024-2025. Evoluci\u00f3n de las lluvias durante el 2024 en Curic\u00f3: enero a septiembre. <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Durante el 2024 las lluvias en Curic\u00f3 han sido de un comportamiento ajeno a las condiciones que\u00a0 un clima normal debe presentar. Hasta junio predomin\u00f3 el evento c\u00e1lido El Ni\u00f1o lo cual gener\u00f3 precipitaciones y nevadas en la regi\u00f3n del Maule. Sin embargo, los meses de julio, agosto y\u00a0 septiembre el clima no ha estado afectado por ning\u00fan evento regional (como El Ni\u00f1o y La Ni\u00f1a).\u00a0 De esa manera en julio solo se midieron 2,4 mil\u00edmetros (normal, en n\u00fameros rojos 100,8 mm); en\u00a0 agosto las lluvias indicaron 106,8 mm (normal 90,2 mm) y septiembre 46,2 mm, siendo lo normal\u00a0 57,4 mm. Por lo anterior desde finales del invierno (agosto) hasta inicios de primavera\u00a0 (septiembre), se registr\u00f3 un super\u00e1vit de lluvias. Lo alternante de las precipitaciones indica que\u00a0 Curic\u00f3 estuvo m\u00e1s bien respondiendo a condiciones de cambio clim\u00e1tico. Si desde julio en\u00a0 adelante se hubiese desarrollado La Ni\u00f1a, estas lluvias habr\u00edan registrado menos del 10% de los\u00a0 valores que indica el gr\u00e1fico. Lo positivo de la actual primavera es que si bien las temperaturas\u00a0m\u00ednimas han estado bajas, no se han registrado heladas; la temperatura m\u00e1s baja en septiembre\u00a0 fue de 2.5\u00b0C (d\u00eda 4) y en octubre, hasta el d\u00eda 5, se midieron 4.3\u00b0C (d\u00eda 2).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Proyecciones para octubre 2024 del evento fr\u00edo La Ni\u00f1a, que a\u00fan no se desarrolla <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Modelo probabil\u00edstico respecto al desarrollo de un evento fr\u00edo La\u00a0 Ni\u00f1a, en el bimestre octubre-noviembre de 2024.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Seg\u00fan los modelos probabil\u00edsticos hay un 80% de probabilidades que el evento fr\u00edo La Ni\u00f1a se\u00a0 desarrolle entre octubre y noviembre. Como se aprecia, y analizando los anteriores boletines, este\u00a0 fen\u00f3meno se ha ido retrasando en su aparici\u00f3n. Se esperaba que entre agosto y septiembre\u00a0surgiera, pero no fue as\u00ed. Eso explica, en parte, las lluvias que se est\u00e1n registrando durante la\u00a0 primavera. Como dijimos anteriormente si La Ni\u00f1a se hubiese desarrollado, desde agosto en\u00a0 adelante las probabilidades de lluvias, en lo que va de primavera, habr\u00edan sido muy bajas. Este\u00a0 evento se caracteriza por bloquear a los sistemas frontales que derivan desde el oc\u00e9ano Pac\u00edfico. Sin embargo, todos los modelos analizados indican que este evento fr\u00edo se va a presentar entre\u00a0 octubre y noviembre. Algunas proyecciones estiman probabilidades del 85%, lo cual es una\u00a0 estimaci\u00f3n clim\u00e1tica positiva alta.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Se sugiere seguir atento a la evoluci\u00f3n clim\u00e1tica para octubre. Se est\u00e1n observando probabilidades\u00a0 de lluvias d\u00e9biles (1 a 2 mil\u00edmetros) durante la primera quincena. En cuanto a temperaturas, ya se\u00a0 han registrados d\u00edas de calor (temperaturas m\u00e1ximas diarias iguales o superior a 25\u00b0C); el d\u00eda 4 de\u00a0 octubre se midieron 26,6 \u00b0C. Lo anterior es muy positivo para la acumulaci\u00f3n de d\u00edas-grado. Otra\u00a0 consideraci\u00f3n a tener en cuenta, es que estamos bajo la constante influencia del cambio clim\u00e1tico\u00a0 producto del calentamiento global. Lo anterior influye para que sean m\u00e1s err\u00e1ticas las\u00a0 condiciones pluviom\u00e9tricas y t\u00e9rmicas, sobre todo en la estaci\u00f3n primaveral. Sin embargo, las\u00a0 probabilidades sugieren que, a partir de noviembre, las variables meteorol\u00f3gicas debieran volver a\u00a0 ser consistentes; sin grandes altibajos; en la medida que el evento fr\u00edo La Ni\u00f1a se logre desarrollar,\u00a0 la cual tendr\u00eda caracter\u00edsticas d\u00e9biles.\u00a0<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Patricio Gonz\u00e1lez Colville\u00a0
\nM.Sc.
\nDip. Agroclimatology, University of Israel.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":239,"featured_media":39857,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[430],"tags":[206,1487],"category_proveedor":[],"pais":[],"class_list":["post-39854","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-clima","tag-clima","tag-patricio-gonzalez"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nInforme agroclimatol\u00f3gico para el mes de octubre - Smartcherry<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/smartcherry.cl\/en\/clima\/informe-agroclimatologico-para-el-mes-de-octubre\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Informe agroclimatol\u00f3gico para el mes de octubre\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Patricio Gonz\u00e1lez Colville\u00a0 M.Sc. 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